Preliminary election results show Republican Donald Trump improved his margins nationwide between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. Traditional red states like Florida and Texas got even redder. And in blue states like California and New York, the president-elect closed the gap by more than 10 points. In all, around 90% of U.S. counties shifted in Trump’s favor over the past four years.
Utah, however, is a curious outlier.
Even though Trump won handily, a Financial Times analysis of Associated Press data shows Kamala Harris had better margins than Joe Biden did in 24 of Utah’s 29 counties.
The New York Times saw a similar result.
If the results hold, Utah would be one of just two states — and the only state Trump won — where he did not gain ground since 2020.
It might be a sign that Trump has hit his ceiling here, said Utah Republican strategist Spencer Stokes.
“I would chalk it up to the [Latter-day Saint] voter who has issues with Donald Trump,” he said. “This has been a question on a lot of Republican, LDS, Utah minds – the issue of character.”
The results reflect a residual effect of 2016, he said, when independent conservative candidate Evan McMullin got 21% of the state’s general election vote. It also doesn’t help that two of Trump’s most outspoken conservative critics, McMullin and Sen. Mitt Romney, still hold significant influence, Stokes said.
Other prominent Utah Republicans, such as Gov. Spencer Cox, were slow to get on the Trump train. Cox did throw his support behind Trump in July, but Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson did not.
“I wouldn't say it's a deep divide in the Republican Party,” Stokes said. “I would say it's a concerning divide within the Republican Party.”
Stokes expects the Utah GOP to bridge its factions and coalesce in the coming years. He can even envision some Utahns, from Sen. Mike Lee to outgoing Attorney General Sean Reyes, tapped to be part of the new Trump administration. That might help more Utah voters warm up to the president.
In his view, Trump gaining more ground elsewhere is less of a statement about Utah voters and more of a sign that other conservative-leaning states are catching up to Utah’s political position.
“By a Texas or a Florida measure, we've always been a red wave,” Stokes said. “We've never changed.”
As Trump’s style of politics reshapes the GOP nationally, however, that could eventually become a bigger concern for the local party, said University of Utah Political Science Professor Jim Curry
“If the Republican Party continues to be molded by Donald Trump … that does start to create an opening,” he said.
“If Democrats can run the right candidates, can persuade the right voters — and maybe even make inroads with some LDS voters — then, yes, over the long term the state could slowly become a little bit more purple.”
Election Day results show Salt Lake County shifted nearly 4% toward Harris compared to Biden’s margin in 2020. In contrast, neighboring cities like Boise, Las Vegas and Phoenix all swung more than 2% toward Trump. The Republican even gained ground in Denver, the capital of increasingly blue Colorado.
“That's a pretty big shift, especially in an election where Donald Trump is doing better than he did four years ago nationally,” Curry said.
Weber County also shifted more than 3% toward Harris. Trump’s margins shrunk slightly in counties like Washington, Wayne and Garfield as well.
Trump also fared worse than some statewide Republicans, Curry noted, running roughly four percentage points behind John Curtis who won a seat in the U.S. Senate.
Utah is still a long way from becoming a swing state, Curry said. If it begins to become more competitive, though, it would start with Salt Lake City.
“That's where Democrats have to win first — and have to win decisively first — if they're going to have a chance to really try to claw more power back from Republicans statewide.”
Editor's Note: Spencer Stokes is a member of KUER’s Advisory Board.
