Lots of changes are in store for Utah’s population by 2065. However, the predicted fast-and-furious pace of population growth may already be slowing.
New projections from the University of Utah's Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute expect Utah to grow by roughly 2 million people in the next 40 years, giving the state a population of 5.6 million.
That’s slightly less than estimates from just a few years ago. Those 2022 numbers show Utah adding 2.2 million people by 2060. The estimates take 15 months to complete and are released by the Gardner Institute every four years.
“Looking out 40 years is really tricky, but we do think that these are the most likely projections,” said Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research. “This is a starting point for a really living conversation that needs to keep occurring over time.”
And one major factor could be to blame for this year’s dip: Utah’s declining fertility rate.
“[Fertility rates] have been coming down since 2008, and so in the model, we have it going to about 1.6 [births per person of child-bearing age],” she said. “That 1.6 is where the U.S. Census Bureau put the national number, so we kind of think we will align with that, not get all the way to it, but be close.”
Utah’s current fertility rate is 1.8 births per child-bearing person.
However, the trajectory is still up. Despite this year’s slight dip, Utah is still expected to outpace national growth numbers by a factor of three over the next four decades.
Bateman said many factors influence long-range growth projections, housing costs and overall economic health, chief among them.
That population growth will also lead to job growth, approximately 1.2 million new jobs over that same time frame. As jobs are created, the whole cycle reinforces itself. A strong economy, Bateman said, means people will move here for jobs, something she called the “wily beast” of the whole data set.
“The migration really is a relationship with the economy,” she said. “We think the economy is going to continue to grow, and so we're going to have to have people to come to fill those jobs.”
With strong projections, perennial issues like housing affordability, water and quality of life will still be top of mind for many Utahns, something Envision Utah CEO Jason Brown is keeping a close eye on.
“I think it is hard to look at some of these numbers and honestly, not get a little bit worried about, you know, all the change that's going to be coming,” he said. “Utah has always been a pretty rapidly growing place, and we've been able to build a great quality of life in the face of all that growth.”
Utah will also continue to get older. The state has traditionally had big families and a high birth rate, but declining births, longer life expectancies and more people moving here for jobs mean an overall older population in the coming decades.
How much older? The percentage of Utahns over the age of 65 is expected to roughly double to 23.5%.
“We do think we're kind of entering a new phase of Utah,” said Bateman.
