Another year in Utah, even fewer babies. That’s the takeaway from new data analyzed by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, which shows Utah’s fertility rate dropped from 4th to 10th nationally in 2023.
These latest numbers continue a decades-long trend. Birth rates in the pro-family, widely religious state have been falling steadily since 2008.
In 2018, Utah’s fertility rate fell below what was needed to replace the population. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Director Natalie Gochnour wrote the following year that the decline “would have a profound impact on Utah’s future.”
Now, the slide in birth rates has only deepened. And when it comes to whether that rate could reverse in Utah, there’s no bundle of joy on the horizon. Brigham Young University Family Life Professor and Wheatley Institute fellow Spencer James says the reasons are twofold.
“When you look at the data from a worldwide perspective, there are two things that tend to hold up fertility more than any others, and those are marriage and religion,” James said.
“Certainly today's generation that is in its prime childbearing years –– the 25 to 40 range –– is arguably the least religious of any generation in Utah history. And so that is certainly going to affect the fertility rate.”
Marriage trends in Utah show people aren’t tying the knot like they used to, either.
“Utahns, like many Americans across the country, are marrying less, and when they do marry, they tend to at later ages.”
James said keeping up the size of a population is a numbers game. In 2023, an average Utah woman had approximately 1.8 children. That’s simply not enough for replacement.
“Every woman needs to have about 2.1 children so that you maintain the size of the population.”
KUER’s Pamela McCall spoke with James about the situation.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Pamela McCall: Women are a crucial part of the workforce and increasingly, they’re either delaying having families, having fewer children or none at all. How do the rights of women to choose their own path in life play into this?
Spencer James: On the one hand, people can choose to engage in child rearing, they can also participate in the labor market. And policy makers must ensure that individual choice is fair and free for everybody involved. And the question is, how do we balance that with rising costs, medical costs, child care costs, housing costs, all of these things, each of which is influencing Utah right now?
PM: Utah is in the midst of an ongoing child care crisis. A state commission tasked with identifying policy solutions was axed during the 2025 legislative session. If the state is not compelled to offer child care solutions, how could that problem be solved?
SJ: You need the government to step in in some form. In places like Sweden, France, Hungary, the Czech Republic –– where nearly everybody is in the labor force –– they have found ways to balance work with family life. They have daycare, there’s workplace flexibility and the ability to call in sick if a child is ill. I think you’d see Utah’s fertility rate increase if we had such government programs.
PM: The Trump administration is considering offering a $5,000 baby bonus as an incentive for people to have children. What do you make of that idea?
SJ: I think it's potentially a step in the right direction, but the people who tend to have the highest fertility in the country don’t tend to be the wealthiest. So if low income folks tend to have more children than their more economically stable counterparts, it’s unclear that money is the sole issue driving this. Also, $5,000 isn't even enough to cover the cost of the hospital bill for giving birth, much less the substantially larger costs of raising and rearing that child.
PM: What's at stake in Utah if the birth rate continues to decline?
SJ: What it means is that you get an increasingly aging population that has significant medical and other similar needs, but with a smaller proportion of your population paying for those needs. Inevitably, those programs are subject to collapse.
PM: What about replacing low fertility rates in Utah with things like in-migration –– people coming in from other places?
SJ: If the problem is that you have too few workers relative to the number of people that you need to support, then yeah, you can either have larger numbers of children to become those workers, or you can bring people in from the outside. This is one of those things where you need to pick which way you want to go as a legislature, as a policy maker.
