Life feels more unaffordable these days; that's because, in large part, it is. Gas prices are seesawing as the U.S. and Iran circle each other. Housing, groceries and many other essentials have felt the sting of inflation and other economic forces. Even Utah’s vaunted love of big families has reportedly come face-to-face with the costs of childcare and a middle-class life.
“I'm definitely not in the so-called vibecession camp,” said University of Utah economics professor Marshall Steinbaum, referring to a gap between positive economic indicators and pessimistic consumer perceptions. “Things are bad. I think the indicators that show that are real.”
For Steinbaum, it’s important to separate traditional markers such as economic growth and success of the stock market from the overall health of consumers and the broader economy. Leaning into those metrics and saying the economy is doing well, he said, only fuels the divide between wealthier Americans and everyone else.
“The difference is basically: Do you own an asset that's appreciating in value, or do you not own such assets?” he said. “And I think the majority of the population is in the latter category by a long stretch.”
One silver lining, said Utah State University economist James Feigenbaum, is that Utahns tend to be more optimistic about the economy than the rest of the country.
“I would say that it generally does seem to be the case that Utah is a little bit more insulated from a lot of what happens nationwide,” he said. “Utahns tend to be more confident about the economy than the country as a whole, and that may be boosting things here.”
The data backs that up. Consumer sentiment in Utah mirrors national trends, but is notably higher than the national average. Sentiment dived nationally and here in Utah at the beginning of 2025 and has yet to recover. That said, Feigenbaum thinks there’s still weight to how people interact with the economy. Those vibes are important.
“If everybody's feeling good about how things are, that tends to be a self-fulfilling expectation,” he said. “When everybody is depressed and stressed. That will eventually weigh down on an economy.”
Look no further than how Utah celebrates its high rankings. State leaders are quick to point to Utah’s top place in the annual U.S. News and World Report state rankings. In their metrics, Utah is ranked second in the nation for economy, scoring high in subcategories like employment, growth and economic opportunity.
But for experts like Steinbaum, it’s important to seriously consider how people are really feeling about their relationship to the economy, not just big picture data points.
“If an economist says in the press that everything's going well and whatever economic issues you're having in your life are not real or due to your own mistakes and poor decision-making, you can feel safe ignoring them because they don't know what they're talking about,” Steinbaum said.
Another marker of discontent is the rising price of everyday goods. For example, clothing is cheaper because of globalization, but costs are rising because of things like inflation, tariffs and higher fuel prices.
“It used to be the case that you would feel like you're getting a good deal on tangible consumer goods even if the price of education and healthcare was going up,” Steinbaum said. “Now you're not getting a good price on tangible consumer goods either.”
It’s increases in these quality-of-life goods that can sometimes make the economy feel worse than when the essentials get more expensive. Steinbaum said the price of a new pair of shoes may be lower than rent, health insurance or student loans, “but they're rising just like housing and healthcare and education are."
Utah State’s Feigenbaum sees another factor influencing people’s bad feelings about the economy: uncertainty.
“It's not likely that prices are going to go back down to where they were unless we have a severe recession,” he said.
So far, there has been little indication that a recession is likely this year, but there are some cracks showing in the labor market with unemployment slowly rising.
“For the people that want a job right now at the current wages, they can find a job,” he said. “But we're also seeing a lot of people leave the labor force because the wages, you know, given the prices, it's just the real wage isn't sufficient enough to induce them to work.”
Still, recent global geopolitics, U.S. tariffs and other policies have changed so much so fast that it’s hard to say what the future holds.
“There's a lot of stuff happening right now that economists are very puzzled by, just as much as the public is,” Feigenbaum said. “If you're feeling confused, we're feeling confused too.”
