For decades, Utah has primarily voted Republican with a Democrat winning an occasional statewide race. But as the population grows and polarization continues, some see an opening for Utah to go from a red state to more of a purple one.
The idea of Utah becoming a swing state may seem like a tough sell but 500,000 new residents are expected to move here in the next decade.
The last time state voters chose a Democrat for president was in 1964, and the Utah Legislature has had a Republican supermajority since the 1990s. Elevate Strategies, a left-leaning political consulting firm, is hopeful they can make the state more politically competitive. The firm appeared in Utah about two years ago and they are working on 17 campaigns this election, including some for third party and unaffiliated candidates.
Co-founder Gabi Finlayson, a Utah native, believes the state has been neglected politically even though “the Republican Party at large, especially nationally, was no longer speaking to the values of the people of the state of Utah.”
She pointed to the surprising popularity of Evan McMullin, who ran for president in 2016 against Donald Trump and as an independent challenger to Republican Sen. Mike Lee in 2022. In both races, McMullin was able to siphon off votes from the Republican nominees despite their wins.
“We're the youngest state in the country. We're the fastest-growing state in the country,” she said. “We have a single media market, which means you can buy one TV ad, and you can get shown to, you know, everyone in the state, which is helpful for us in politics because it's a lot cheaper to actually run races.”
If Democrats and Independents run strong and strategic campaigns, she believes they have a chance to chip away at the supermajority in the Legislature. Elevate, Finlayson said, is focusing on candidate recruitment, training and investment.
She knows it will be an uphill battle but they have a model state to look after: Colorado.
Utah’s neighbor wasn’t always blue. It was a red state for several decades, but things started to shift in the 1990s. It became a swing state before turning mostly blue in 2004.
Rob Witwer, a former Republican Colorado congressman and co-author of the book “The Blueprint: How the Democrats Won Colorado (and Why Republicans Everywhere Should Care)” said there was a formula that pushed the state to the left. Changing demographics – similar to what Utah is facing – didn’t hurt the cause, but it wasn’t the driving force at the time.
“The real forcing mechanism for this change was campaign finance reform, both at the federal level.”
Once Coloradans passed campaign finance reform, Witwer said it “killed political parties” in the state, because they could no longer do things on behalf of the candidates like organize, spend money, poll voters or run ad campaigns.
“Very quickly, Democrats recognized the vacuum that was created by campaign finance reform, and that vacuum was filled by a collection of nonprofit organizations that became the campaign infrastructure for Democrats in 2004,” Witwer said.
Additionally, Colorado Republicans grew “progressively out of step with the voters,” which showed at the ballot box. Factions within the GOP also started to play a role. Back in the 1980s, when Republicans controlled the state, Witwer remembers “a handful of pro-choice Republican legislators” in the Colorado House. By the 90s, though, “it no longer became possible for a Republican to hold certain views and make it through a primary.”
What that means for Utah, Witwer said, is that a “fragmented Republican Party” paves a way for Democrats to swoop in with a strong candidate and start winning seats.
“They [Democrats] selected a good candidate who was talking about issues that were resonant with the voters, and at the same time, they brought to the table stronger infrastructure, better blocking and tackling on the campaign side, that seat would flip,” he said. “And we saw that story replicate itself over and over and over again.”
Even with Colorado’s blue road map, Utah is different. The culture is different. Values are different. And not everyone is convinced the state will shift purple. Ben McAdams, the last Democratic congressman from Utah, would love to see that happen but said he’s skeptical.
“Purple could be the direction we're heading. I would call it probably a reddish-purple,” McAdams said. “I don't see anytime soon Utah being a place where you win because you're a Democrat.”
The former congressman added that for Democrats to win in Utah, the party needs to narrow its message and be strategic because they’re “not going to win on the national message.”
“We've got to show that Utah Democrats are different than the national Democrats, and people have to understand intuitively what that means.”
McAdams does see a Utah where Democrats can flip Republican seats if the party can marshal enough blue, disenfranchised red and independent votes. Even then, “it’s going to take some time.”
Finlayson hopes to dismantle the Republican supermajority in the next eight years, preferably before the next congressional redistricting cycle. Elevate is targeting the more populated counties across the state, including Utah, Salt Lake, Weber and Davis.
“We think that breaking up that political monopoly is going to be better for people,” she said.
“When we do have more Democrats and even more independents, people that just aren't part of that Republican monopoly, the more responsive the Republican Party has to be, and the more moderate they have to become.”
This story is based on reporting from the latest episode of State Street, “Could Utah follow Colorado down the purple path?” Listen wherever you get your podcasts.
