In a presidential campaign already upended more than once, Vice President Kamala Harris’ entry into the race has pumped new enthusiasm into the election. Her campaign raised more than $200 million in its first week, and 66% of contributions came from first-time donors.
Stacy Bernal, a Democrat running for Utah State Senate District 3, representing Morgan, Weber and Summit counties, feels this momentum “trickling down” in her campaign.
“I think just the freshness and the new energy, I think it’s gonna be good for candidates that are down ballot,” Bernal said. “People who haven't typically, necessarily, either donated to a candidate or been involved in grassroots campaigns, I think people are really excited.”
Utah is still a reliably red state, but in part to Harris, Mason Hughes with the Utah Democratic Party said they are seeing “more people who want to volunteer [and] we have more people that are donating to the state Democratic Party.”
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national party apparatus that works with state legislatures across the country, added Bernal’s race to its spotlight list of local elections that it believes could flip blue. This increased visibility could lead to more fundraising for her campaign. Bernal is challenging Republican incumbent John Johnson.
Bernal’s campaign might have been picked as a potential flip because of Johnson’s Trump-aligned legislation, noted Leah Murray, a political science professor at Weber State University.
“They might think, enough moderate Republicans, being uncomfortable with Trump, seeing Johnson as kind of Trump-aligned, might not want to vote for him,” said Murray.
Nationally, after Biden left the race, Vote.org saw the largest increase in new voter registrations of any 48-hour period in this election.
Murray, however, is skeptical that excitement will make a difference in Utah elections. The “Kamala effect,” as she called it, could help in other states, but in Utah, there isn’t a critical mass of Democrats.
As of July 29, Utah has 233,076 active voters registered as Democrats, compared to 906,085 registered Republicans and 469,643 unaffiliated voters. Former President Donald Trump won 58% of the vote in Utah in 2020, compared to President Joe Biden’s 38%. Only six of Utah’s 29 state senators are Democrats, and they all represent Salt Lake County.
“There might be enthusiasm. I just don't think there's enough there for a win,” Murray said.
While the number of registered voters in Utah has increased since Biden’s decision, the change is not statistically significant when compared to fluctuations in voter registration since Super Tuesday. But Google searches for “register to vote” in Utah did hit their highest point in the last year in the week following Harris’ announcement.
While the national excitement may have energized local races, Murray doubts it’ll make a difference in November.
“Even if every last Democrat came out to vote, I'm not sure that's enough on its own for Stacy Bernal to win,” she said.
Macy Lipkin is a Report for America corps member who reports for KUER in northern Utah.
