As Utah Republicans and Democrats ready their 2026 midterm nominating conventions this weekend, recent data show the political landscape is shifting within The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
Over the last 18 years, members moved 19 points to the left, according to a new report from the global analytics firm YouGov based on data from the Cooperative Election Survey.
“And when you look at pretty much every other religious group, they move to the right, with the exception of atheists,” said Alex Bass, a data scientist who runs the blog Mormon Metrics.
He dove into what could be driving this trend. When he plotted the share of devout Latter-day Saints — those with the highest levels of religious practice, such as praying and attending church — and the share of Latter-day Saints who identify as Republican, they seem to be declining in tandem.
Of course, correlation isn’t always causation. Bass said, however, the political beliefs of the different devoutness groups haven’t changed — devout members are firmly Republican, and cultural members are near the political center. Now, there are just more Latter-day Saints who are less devout and less Republican.
The share of devout Latter-day Saints dropped from 52% in 2008-2012 to 39% in 2021-2025. Cultural members, those who attend church less than once a month, grew from 21% to 31%.
Bass also pointed to the 18-30 age group. He found that those members are moving away from the political right the fastest while also becoming less devout.
“We would need more time to causally test this and causally prove it, but it just doesn't seem like a coincidence that both the devoutness and the Republican party affiliation are declining in tandem, and the group that's declining among both metrics is the same.”
This interview transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
Ciara Hulet: A recent Gallup poll found the percentage of Americans who say religion is very important has declined since 2012. So if Latter-day Saints are becoming more liberal as they're becoming less devout, why don’t we see other religious groups leaning more left as well?
Alex Bass: Yeah, that's a great question and one that I'm actively exploring. One idea that I have, that I have yet to test and to prove, is there could be an argument that Latter-day Saints recently have become better at retaining liberal members, and so perhaps the Democratic or the liberal members continue to identify with the Mormon religion, whereas maybe, you know, if somebody in the Evangelical tradition becomes liberal, they just drop out of religion entirely. Just a theory that I have but definitely will want to look into that more.
CH: Latter-day Saints emphasize civility and community, and President Dallin H. Oaks spoke about being a peacemaker at the church’s most recent general conference. Could those values also be at play here?
AB: Yeah, another theory could be just the values of Latter-day Saints and the values of the Republican Party are just changing. The Republican Party has gone through a lot of changes in the last 10 years, and I think it's safe to say that a lot of Latter-day Saints haven't been on board with a lot of those changes.
CH: Are more Latter-day Saints becoming Democrats now or just leaning away from the current Republican Party?
AB: So I actually did another study where I looked at people's beliefs on a political compass over time, and the Latter-day Saint beliefs have been surprisingly stable. So my best guess is that it's more of the party moving and less of Latter-day Saints changing their beliefs. I do think that there probably have been more Latter-day Saints identifying as Democrats in the last, you know, 10 years, 20 years. But, yeah, that isn't necessarily indicative of a large shift or a political realignment, of floods of Latter-day Saints leaving the Republican Party.
CH: Does that mean anything for how Latter-day Saints will cast their vote?
AB: I've looked at presidential approval over time, specifically in the Trump era. And whereas initially, Latter-day Saints were pretty hesitant towards Trump, and you know, that's very clear with Evan McMullin 2016 events. But over his first presidency, there's been more warming up towards him, where the majority of Latter-day Saints are net approving of him. And that stayed the same in the latest data in 2025.
