There’s one thing not on the menu for much of northern Utah this Thanksgiving: snow.
That’s not too out of the ordinary. Salt Lake City has only experienced a white turkey day around a third of the time since 1954, according to the National Weather Service.
What is unusual, however, is how little white stuff covers the mountains beyond the Salt Lake Valley. Snowpack totals are dreadfully below their historical averages.
“We don't get super excited or super concerned this early in the snowpack season,” said Jordan Clayton, who supervises the Utah Snow Survey Program. “But clearly, the northern half of the state is off to a very slow start.”
One way to put the slow start into perspective is to compare it to recent history, Clayton said. Looking at 1991-2020, 2025 is a big outlier.
The basin that stretches from Park City to North Ogden has around one-third of its typical snowpack for this point in November. The basin that covers Salt Lake City to Midway to Nephi has less than one-seventh of its normal amount. At this point in 2024, both basins had enough snow to be near historical norms.
Here’s another way to look at it. Both of those northern Utah basins have so little snow that they fall in the second percentile of their historical records. That means in 98% of the years from 1991-2020, Clayton said, the basins had more snow at this time of year than they have now.
The number of inches involved in these early-season averages is smaller than the totals later in the winter, he noted, but it’s not a good sign. Still, time is on the state’s side.
“I definitely would not get discouraged yet,” Clayton said. “Obviously, if we're still looking red a month from now, that'll be another story.”
The statewide picture is flipped from last year’s snow season, when northern Utah did fairly well and the southern part of the state missed out. Thanks to atmospheric river storms from the Pacific Ocean, southwest Utah is now one of the few bright spots on Utah’s snowpack map.
The basin that includes St. George and Cedar City has 145% of its typical snowpack for this point in November. That’s a big improvement from this time last year, when it was at 78%. The Escalante-Paria basin in south-central Utah has seen a similar jump compared to 2024.
Because it’s still early, Clayton said, it’s possible northern Utah could catch up in the coming weeks. But the delay has immediate economic impacts.
“The snow is important beyond just water supply,” Clayton said. “Obviously, they've got ski resorts and other folks that are depending on the snow starting to accumulate, and everything's behind for this time of year.”
That shows up in the ski resort opening dates that have been pushed back to December or are yet to be announced.
Alta Ski Area is having its worst November on record, with just 2.5 inches of snowfall so far. That’s a steep drop from the 46.9 inches that fell in the first 25 days of November last year. From 2000-2024, Alta’s average total snowfall this far into the month was 36.1 inches.
Snowbird is also historically low, according to the SNOTEL survey site there. It currently has just one inch of snow water equivalent, a measurement of the liquid water in snowpack. That’s well below its historical normal of 4.8 inches and just below the lowest figure ever recorded there at this time of year. Other areas, including Powder Mountain and Brighton, also have snow water equivalent totals that sit near or below historic lows.
The meager snow scene in northern Utah points to a broader trend across the West as climate change — driven by fossil fuel emissions — warms the globe.
“I'm not super surprised,” said Climate Central Senior Research Associate Kaitlyn Trudeau. “Because it is something that we've seen more often with climate change.”
Salt Lake County’s average winter temperatures have risen by 3.1 degrees since 1970, according to a Climate Central analysis. Other counties, including Weber, Uintah and Grand, have warmed even more.
It may not sound like much, she said, but those few degrees could make a big difference for Utah winters. The three-degree rise in Salt Lake City, for example, has moved the city’s average winter temperature from below the freezing point to above it.
And rising temperatures mean a very different picture for precipitation.
Climate Central’s analysis shows Salt Lake City gets nearly 9 fewer inches of snow in an average winter than it did in 1970. During the same time period, the city’s total winter precipitation hasn’t changed much. So, it’s not that Utah is getting less moisture in the winter, Trudeau said, but that it’s falling as rain instead of snow.
“It really speaks to the warming and how it's going to be a lot harder for us to not only get snow, but to hold on to the snow,” she said.
These changes are especially evident in the shoulder seasons, including November, when low temperatures often hover around the freezing point. According to Climate Central analysis, Salt Lake City sees around 14 fewer winter nights with below-freezing temperatures than it did in 1970.
“Winters are shrinking,” Trudeau said. As warmer weather expands into the shoulder season, “it's really cutting into winter, and that is super concerning.”
There are still some potential reasons for hope as this winter begins in earnest, though.
For one, Utah caught some fortunate rainfall in October. That improved soil moisture conditions pretty much statewide, Clayton said, which is an encouraging sign. When soils are dry, they can soak up spring snowmelt before it gets to rivers and reservoirs.
The forecast into early December looks promising, too. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s near-term weather outlook says all of Utah has a good chance of above-average precipitation in the first half of next month.
“We'll kind of keep our fingers crossed on that,” Clayton said.
