It’s been a historically bad winter for snow in one of Utah’s most parched places.
St. George is having its driest winter since weather records began in 1893, with virtually no rain or snow since Dec. 1.
The city also tied the record for its driest-ever January with 0.00 inches of precipitation. Its historical average for the month is 1.22 inches, based on data from 1991-2020.
The numbers across southern Utah aren’t much better.
Canyonlands National Park is on track for its driest winter, with 0.01 inches of precipitation since the start of December. Cedar City tied its driest-ever January with virtually no rain or snow.
With its desert climate, it’s not unusual for St. George to have a streak of dry weather that lasts weeks or even months. What is unusual is to see it during the winter. That’s bad news for the region’s precious snowpack, which provides about 75% of all water for residents, said Utah Snow Survey Supervisor Jordan Clayton.
“Every single one of our weather stations in the southwest corner of the state is in the bottom 15th percentile,” he said. “It's not just uncommon. It's historically poor.”
Snow levels in southwest Utah — including the combined basins that offer water to St. George and Cedar City — are at record lows. As of Feb. 6, the regional snow water equivalent total is just 1.4 inches and has been flatlining since late December. That is the amount of liquid water stored in the snowpack. The region’s median level for this time of year is typically 7.1 inches.
Some of the snow survey sites in the nearby high mountains stand out as alarm bells to Clayton, too.
At an elevation of 9,830 feet, Midway Valley near Cedar City is typically southwest Utah’s best weather station for snow. He described it as a keystone site for scientists to know how the region’s snowpack is doing.
As of Feb. 6, Midway Valley had 4.8 inches of snow water equivalent. That’s roughly one-third of its median snowpack level for this time of year. Another spot is Gardner Peak in the Pine Valley Mountains near St. George. At 8,320 feet, that site has just 2 inches of snow water. Its typical level is 9.3 inches.
Overall, southwestern Utah’s snowpack is currently less than one-fifth of its median level for this time of year. With the region so many inches below its usual snowpack totals, Clayton said even a big storm – or two – wouldn’t come close to returning things to normal.
The poor snow conditions are further compounded by near-record-dry soil moisture levels, he said, which could soak up spring runoff before it ever gets downstream to reservoirs.
“When you have snow that's this far behind where it needs to be — and then even if it caught up, you’ve got soils that are so depleted for moisture — you're really looking at the potential for very, very low snowmelt runoff into our reservoir system.”
Other southern Utah basins, including the Escalante-Paria and Southeast Utah, also have less than half of their average snowpack. It is part of a broader snow drought across the Southwest this winter, which could return the Colorado River and Lake Powell to perilous lows.
One of the reasons for this could be La Niña, said Christine Kruse, lead meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City. That’s the cool phase of a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that began in December.
“Despite the fact that we're in a weak La Niña cycle, we are seeing the impacts to our precipitation that are typical for La Niña,” which means below-average winter precipitation in the Southwest, Kruse said. “The most probable scenario is that we continue to see that through late winter and into early spring.”
That could create dangerous wildfire conditions with dry plants ready to burn, she said, and may even kick fire season into gear earlier than normal.
Seasonal outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expect conditions in southern Utah to be drier and warmer than average through the rest of winter and into the spring. Snowpack in southwest Utah typically peaks in mid-March.
“It's still February, so there's still time,” Kruse said. “But right now, the indications are that the headwaters of those rivers are going to continue to see below-normal precipitation and a below-normal runoff.”
Even if southwest Utah got average snowfall from this point on, Clayton said it would still end up in the bottom 10th percentile for its winter snowpack. Survey projections show that anything less than average would keep southwest Utah in record-low snowpack territory for the winter.
For now, he said Utah’s reservoirs are doing their job and making up for the shortfall. Even the largest in southwest Utah, Sand Hollow, remains 86% full. That’s just 10% lower than this time last year. But others in the region are starting to rapidly deplete. Panguitch Lake is at 46% of capacity, roughly 40% lower than it was in February 2024. Gunlock Reservoir is 56% full, a quarter less than this time last year.
That shows how quickly the region’s water reserves can get used when it doesn’t rain, Clayton said — and how vital water conservation efforts are for the future.
With northern Utah’s snowpack levels in decent shape, he hopes that doesn’t distract from the warning signs in the south.
“That's one thing that has been concerning to me: to make sure that people are noticing that, ‘Hey, this is really alarming, and we need to potentially take action.’”
