Great Salt Lake is again on the decline, and summer likely won’t help it

Great Salt Lake will likely have a tough summer.

The saline lake relies on mountain snow melt to fill it with water, and this winter wasn’t as good as the past two seasons. Enough snow fell in 2023 and 2024 to lift the state out of drought, fill reservoirs to above capacity and boost the withering Great Salt Lake.

It’s a different story this year. As of May 1, the amount of runoff that made its way to the Great Salt Lake basin is 72% of normal, compared with 108% at this time in 2024. Jordan Clayton, the Utah Snow Survey Program supervisor, predicted the lake would reach 4,193.7 feet by the end of the runoff season in July.

“The lake is at 4,193.3 feet right now,” Clayton said. “We're already, unfortunately, seeing the lake past its peak in all likelihood.”

The lake rose about 1.5 feet from its seasonal low in November, according to the Utah Division of Water Resources. Great Salt Lake Commissioner Brian Steed said any additional runoff that makes its way to the lake won’t make much of a difference. The levels, he said, have already started to fall, and by the end of summer, the lake will lose as much – if not more – than it gained over the winter.

“I'm guessing we're going to have probably a foot and a half more decrease this year.”

The good news, Steed said, is that the lake’s salinity is OK. When salt levels get too high, it essentially suffocates the organisms that call the lake home because fresh water carries more oxygen than saltwater.

The current projections are a disappointment to Steed and Clayton. Both anticipated water levels to creep up to at least 4,194 feet. The lake reached a historic low of 4,190.9 feet in 2022. At face value, where the lake stands now versus where it was predicted to be doesn’t seem like a big difference. But Steed’s established target range for the lake is between 4,198-4,205 feet. That allows for the ecosystem to support the survival of brine flies and brine shrimp. And keeps industries that do business on the lake, such as mineral extraction, able to do their jobs. And recreators can sail their boat or paddle their kayak without fear of hitting the lake bottom.

Bonnie Baxter, a microbiologist at Westminster University who studies lake organisms, told KUER’s RadioWest that she is seeing the ecosystem take a hit.

“We're starting to see the shorelines recede again. We're starting to see birds in strange places. We're starting to see the place where the brine flies pupate, those are all being exposed,” she said. “We're starting to see signs that we're creeping towards that horrible place again.”

Still, Steed is grateful that “we're not in the crisis that we were in 2022.” The last two years have bought Great Salt Lake some time, but he sees that buffer eroding. He’s also worried about impacts to the ecosystem as well as the dust from the exposed lake bed.

The summer months aren’t projected to ease the worry, either.

Climatologists are predicting a hotter-than-average summer. That means the lake will evaporate faster. Additionally, when it’s hotter, there is greater demand on Utah’s already strained water system. The upside, Steed said, is that the majority of reservoirs in the northern part of the state are full. The southern part of the state, which is back in drought, doesn’t have much impact on the lake.

Any precipitation will help Great Salt Lake’s cause. But the weather pattern is hard to predict right now.

The biggest message Utahns should take away from the summer forecast, Steed said, is to plan on using less water.

“We haven't had the runoff that we wanted to see this year, and that puts us in a pretty perilous position heading into a dry summer,” Steed said. “That makes us all more worried about how we get more water to the lake, and it's going to take all of us to get more water through intentional use and intentional reduction in use.”