Utah’s weather is hard to predict right now. La Niña has ended. But its counterpart, El Niño, hasn’t begun, either.
These are the warm and cool phases of a cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, when temperatures in part of the Pacific Ocean rise and fall. Each is associated with specific weather impacts like a drier winter or a wetter monsoon season.
The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook predicts neutral conditions throughout the summer and possibly until the end of the year. This in-between phase brings some extra unpredictability to Utah’s weather forecasts, said Emily Becker, associate director of the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.
“It doesn't necessarily mean that the weather is going to be wilder or something like that,” she said. “It just means that if you're trying to predict, ‘Is this winter going to be warmer than average or cooler than average?,’ we just don't have the same information as we do during an El Niño or La Niña year.”
In their absence, scientists will have to rely on other short-term weather signals — like the Madden-Julian Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation — that only let them gaze a few days or weeks into the future.
“One of the most interesting things about El Niño and La Niña is they can be predicted months — even a couple of years — in advance,” said Becker, who writes about the phases for NOAA.
With a neutral summer on deck, Becker said meteorologists will also look at climatic trends from the past 20 or 30 years to get an idea of what seasonal weather patterns may bring.
“Particularly for locations such as Utah out in the West, we've seen some pretty strong recent trends,” she said. “So, those will provide us more predictive information.”
In Utah, those trends have brought plenty of extreme summer heat. For example, 2024 was one of Utah’s hottest summers on record, as climate change fueled by greenhouse gas emissions continued to make heat waves more frequent and intense.
Unfortunately, 2025 may deliver more of the same. NOAA’s seasonal outlook map has a bullseye over Utah, predicting above-average temperatures all summer and into the fall.
Whether that forecast comes true may depend on when monsoon rains arrive, said National Weather Service meteorologist Hayden Mahan.
“The later the monsoon and the weaker the monsoon, in general, probably we would expect warmer temperatures and a longer period of warmer temperatures,” he said.
That also influences wildfire risk.
A historically dry winter in southern Utah has already parched landscapes, turning plants into potential fire fuel. With summer heat on the way, the National Interagency Fire Council predicts above-average potential for wildland fires in that area through June and into July — before monsoon season typically begins.
Another factor that could determine the severity of Utah’s summer heat will be where any high-pressure system forms, Mahan said.
“If it stays in place overhead, then we could be in for a long duration heat wave, potentially,” he said. “It's all about the orientation of where that summertime ridge sets up.”
While the early signals are still weak, he said it looks more likely the high-pressure ridge will form to the east of Utah, which would be a good sign for monsoon moisture and to keep temperatures in check.
