The little snow Utah got this winter is rapidly disappearing.
In a week when the state’s snowpack typically peaks, Utah’s statewide average has dropped to 3 inches — just 21% of normal.
“The conditions are unprecedented,” said Jack Schmidt, director of the Center for Colorado River Studies at Utah State University. “This is the worst scenario we could have in terms of such a dismal winter and such a quick snowmelt and such a disappearance of the snowpack.”
Utah’s current snowpack is also less than half of the state’s previous record low for this time of year, which had been 6.9 inches. The figures are based on snow water equivalent — the amount of water held in snow — measured at 114 survey sites across the state.
Snow conditions were already pitiful following the state’s warmest winter on record. Then the March heat wave arrived.
Communities from Park City to St. George routinely saw highs 20 to 30 degrees warmer than their historical averages. What’s even more jaw-dropping is that the unusual warmth lasted for the better part of two weeks, said Shel Winkley, meteorologist with research organization Climate Central.
“It's not just one weird, wonky day,” he said. “It's the fact that this has been lingering for as long as it has that really is showing the impacts of climate change.”
The heat Utah experienced during several of those days was made five times more likely by human-caused emissions that are fueling climate change, according to Climate Central’s attribution tool. And it took its toll on Utah’s vaunted snow.
In just nine days from March 21 to 30, Utah lost half of its snowpack as temperatures broke records across the West. Snow has already vanished from some watersheds, including the Price San Rafael, Lower Sevier and Escalante-Paria.
“It's just nosedived,” Winkley said. “You have this summer-like heat at the time when the snowpack is supposed to be at its peak.”
Utah’s snowpack level typically does not fall to 3 inches until May 20. Prior to this year, the earliest date it got this low was April 29, according to data from SNOTEL sites that have operated since 1981.
It essentially means that Utah’s snow runoff is happening a month or two earlier than usual, Winkley said, which could result in a variety of ripple effects. When the season is so poor and short, there are likely economic losses for the Utah winter sports business, a longer wildfire season for forests and potential water restrictions for cities and farms.
While Utah will certainly see some cooldowns this spring, Winkley said most days will likely still be warmer than normal. The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects above-average temperatures to continue through at least June.
Early snowmelt alone wouldn’t automatically hurt the water supply, Schmidt said — if the runoff still flowed downstream to reservoirs.
“The problem is we are losing so much of that snow to the atmosphere or to dry soils that the question is just how much is actually even going to get into the rivers,” he said. “So, the bigger concern is that the reservoir of snow that produces streamflow is disappearing before our eyes, and that is a major concern.”
That puts extra pressure on the strained Colorado River as Utah and six other states remain deadlocked over how to split its water.
By the end of 2026, levels at Lake Powell — the nation’s second-largest reservoir — will likely drop below the minimum elevation necessary to generate hydroelectric power at Glen Canyon Dam. That’s according to the most probable scenario in federal projections from mid-March — before the Western heat wave.
Estimates for how much water will flow into Lake Powell have continued to drop since then, Schmidt said, and he suspects this year’s inflow could rival 2002, which was the lowest of the 21st century.
The federal government could choose to release extra water from northeast Utah’s Flaming Gorge reservoir to prop up Powell this year. It could also decrease the amount of water transferred from Powell to Nevada’s Lake Mead. But shifting resources is merely a short-term solution, Schmidt said.
With less water to go around, tensions will likely rise over possible cuts — whether that’s between the Upper or Lower Basin or the region’s cities or farms.
“There's a lot of things that are going to make all of this very messy,” he said. “The terrifying thing would be if — in a worst-case scenario — next winter is also very dry.”
It’s unclear what the near future may hold for Utah. However, a study from the University of Idaho and the University of California suggests that consecutive snow drought years are expected to become significantly more common in the West in the coming decades if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
So, Winkley said, states like Utah should take action now to be ready to handle this new reality.
“How do we better build and better prepare our communities in the potential for future winters like this or future snowpacks that are this low?” Winkley said. “How do we use what we learned from this winter to be ready for the next time that occurs?”
