From Washington County to the Wasatch Front, Utah communities face some of the nation’s highest risk for wildfires. And as the devastating fires around Los Angeles show, there isn’t an off-season for wildfires anymore.
Utah doesn’t have the same population densities as southern California, but its rapid growth is expected to continue. So the impacts of large-scale fires across the West offer a glimpse of what might be in store for Utah’s future, said Tom Cova, a professor at the University of Utah who studies environmental hazards and emergency management.
“There's a saying, ‘The future is already here, it's just not spread evenly,’” he said. “We can look to California and the Colorado Front Range for where Utah's heading.”
More development on the outskirts of Utah communities could increase the amount of people living in the wildland-urban interface, a transition zone where homes meet wilderness.
In some places, the only land available to develop is in these high-risk areas, said Doug Green, who manages a national Headwaters’ Economics program that helps communities increase their wildfire resilience.
“We see a tremendous pressure and amount of growth in areas that have high wildfire risk that have been areas that wildfire has historically burned through for thousands and thousands of years,” Green said. “Then you start building homes in there, and the risk becomes even greater.”
Like the greater LA area, the Salt Lake Valley is ringed with mountains. As some homeowners found over the summer, insurance companies are raising rates or dropping coverage as they become more sensitive to the risks.
Headwaters created the Wildfire Risk to Communities tool in partnership with the U.S. Forest Service. It’s a map that estimates risk for properties nationwide. Utah ranks in the top 10% and many of its most populated and fastest-growing communities are at an even greater risk.
Salt Lake County homes are in the top 4%. For Washington, Iron and Utah counties, it's in the top 3%. Box Elder and Tooele counties are in the 100th percentile, the most at-risk category nationwide.
The map also explains which type of fire exposure is most likely, breaking them into what it calls risk reduction zones. In Washington County, for example, 56% of homes and other buildings are at risk for indirect exposure. That’s the sort of spread seen in the Los Angeles fires, Green said, where homes are ignited by flying embers or neighboring buildings rather than by trees or grass.
“Like you saw in California — and as you could see possibly in St. George — even though the town itself may not be in a really heavily forested area, if you get embers landing in a community that's susceptible to wildfire … [and] once you get a couple of those structures ignited, then it becomes something far greater than just a wildfire.”
Still, there are ways to lessen the fire danger.
Headwaters’ Wildfire Risk tool lists several actions people can take, from a homeowner clearing out flammable plants to developers using wildfire-resistant building materials. Utah also offers a number of tip sheets on how to make landscapes and homes more firewise. If you’re unsure what specific steps to take at your home, Green suggested asking your local fire department.
It’s also important to make an emergency plan before a fire gets close, said Kelly Wickens, a prevention and communications specialist with the Utah Division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands.
“Many of us aren't used to thinking about fire in January. However, now is the time to start thinking about these things,” she said. “[Have] a plan in place, so you don't have to try to figure it out when you're scared and tired.”
The agency created another map tool, called the Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal, where people can type in their address and find out their level of risk. Wickens said it’s smart to put together an emergency kit and think through your potential evacuation route if you live in a high-risk area.
Another thing Utahns can do is sign up for local wildfire emergency notifications (here are the links for Salt Lake County, Washington County and Weber County).
“Alerts and warnings will save lives,” Cova said. “It's one of the most, if not the most, important piece of information you can get.”
Many people don’t subscribe to receive those, he said, though. So, some emergency management teams are starting to use the federal wireless emergency alerts system — similar to Amber Alerts — as a way to push wildfire notifications to cell phones.
This system has a lot of benefits, Cova said. It can quickly reach more people because there’s no need to sign up, and it automatically introduces itself with an audible tone so it’s harder to miss.
As climate change supercharges the potential for destructive wildfires across the nation, he said all of the preparedness in the world can only protect us so much.
“Like what happened in Pacific Palisades, you can be dealt an overwhelming scenario.”
Read more from LAist: What caused the LA fires? We explain what's known so far and how fire causes are determined
