President Donald Trump’s deportation plans could get in the way of Gov. Spencer Cox’s goal to build 35,000 starter homes by 2028. It all comes down to the available labor force.
About 135,000 people work in construction in Utah, according to 2023 data from the Department of Workforce Services. It’s estimated that 12,000 of those are in the country illegally. That’s based on a study conducted by the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute that analyzed population and income census data. Without those workers, construction costs could increase, making starter homes more difficult to build.
Recent changes by the Trump administration may make it easier for people in the country illegally to be deported without a criminal conviction. For starters, “collateral arrests” are now allowed, as reported by the Associated Press. This means immigration enforcement officials can arrest people without legal status who they encounter while looking for specific targets.
The Laken Riley Act, which the president signed Jan. 29, calls for detaining and deporting people without legal status who are charged — but not convicted — with certain crimes, including nonviolent offenses like shoplifting and minor theft.
Steve Waldrip, the governor’s senior advisor for housing strategy and innovation, said removing Utah’s construction workers without legal status would squeeze the workforce.
“I do think that there's a concern that if we lose that segment of our labor force in housing construction, that we will feel that in the pricing that's already too high,” he said.
A recent study by economists Troup Howard of the University of Utah, Mengqi Wang of Amherst College and Dayin Zhang of the University of Wisconsin-Madison found deporting workers without legal status does lead to increased home prices. The paper is currently undergoing peer review.
The researchers analyzed changes in residential construction as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Secure Communities program rolled out across the country from 2008 to 2013. Under the program, the Federal Bureau of Investigation automatically shared fingerprints of people taken into state and local custody with the Department of Homeland Security. The fingerprints were run through immigration databases, and if an individual was identified as being in the country illegally, ICE took action.
Zhang said they compared housing in counties where the program had been implemented at different times.
“We found first, if you have Secure Communities, you see a shortage of supply, shortage of labor supply in the construction sector, specifically from illegal immigrants,” he said.
That led to less construction and a shortage in housing supply — and an increase in costs for new construction. Builders sometimes constructed smaller homes to account for rising costs. Zhang noted the impact could vary depending on how much of an area’s workforce is in the country illegally.
The researchers found large-scale deportations led to fewer jobs for U.S.-born workers. Zhang said construction wages increased little, and many low-skill jobs were left unfilled. As a result, there were fewer jobs for higher-skilled workers.
“If you just don't have people framing the house or install[ing] the drywall, you actually don't have the job for inspectors or electricians,” he said.
Waldrip said rising costs could make the governor’s starter home goal even harder to hit.
“Pricing is a part of the starter home,” he said. “If we get too high, then it's no longer a starter home.”
Macy Lipkin is a Report for America corps member who reports for KUER in northern Utah.
