There is a lot of excitement from Democrats over the freshly redrawn congressional maps. The 1st Congressional District now encapsulates most of Salt Lake County and is widely believed to be Utah’s most favorable blue seat since 2021. It raises the question: Do Republican candidates stand a chance?
“The fact that I don't recognize the names of the Republicans speaks a lot to me that the Republicans are kind of like, this is not a seat that we can win,” said Leah Murray when looking at a list of who is running for the new seat. She is the director of the Walker Institute of Politics and Public Service at Weber State University.
Seven Democrats, including names like former Congressman Ben McAdams, state Sen. Nate Blouin and Salt Lake City Councilwoman Eva Lopez Chavez, rushed to throw their hats in the ring. So did four Republicans: Dave Robinson, Stone Fonau, Jonathan Lopez and Riley Owen.
Murray believes strategic Republican candidates with longer-term political goals will sit this election out. There are still questions whether the 1st District will remain as is or be redrawn later to make it more GOP-friendly. The push to get the gerrymandering ban repeal on the ballot looks like it has failed, but Republican lawmakers haven’t given up the fight.
“I think Republicans are thinking, we've got three seats, all of whom are much more conservative,” Murray said.
The other redrawn districts, she added — the 2nd, 3rd and 4th — are likely to be a focus for hyper conservative politics to counterbalance the left-leaning district.
When asked how a Republican candidate could fare against the excitement around the Democratic candidates, Murray said if they stray outside of a purely issue-based campaign, they don't stand a chance. Voters are focused on specific needs.
“They're going to vote on what's going on in the economy,” she said, “and right now, I can't afford to buy a house, I can't afford to pay for gas, so I'm staying home instead of driving into work.”
Murray said this will likely hurt the Republican candidates because campaigning on the economy is what got President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024. She believes, broadly, that voters are less interested in their representation in Congress and much more interested right now in voting for or against Trump.
“Most Americans don't go ‘the Republicans are in control in Congress,’” she explained. “They're going to go, ‘Trump is a Republican, my gas costs as much money. I'm voting for a Democrat.’”
The goal for any person running for Congress, Murray said, is to find the middle voters in the district.
The active voter breakdown in Salt Lake County is 239,851 Republicans, 130,649 Democrats and 188,470 unaffiliated voters. Current statewide data suggests Democrats make up almost 14% of voter registration. Though this has been disputed. Since Utah is a supermajority state, voters from other parties have long registered as Republicans to participate in primaries and act as a moderating force. As redistricting heated up, Brian King, the head of the Utah Democratic Party, asked voters to come back to the party in October of last year.
Murray believes the same principle will get a moderate Democrat, like Ben McAdams, votes from registered Republicans.
Of the Republican candidates running in the new 1st District, only Dave Robinson responded to KUER’s request for comment. He has a background in residential construction and was a volunteer spokesperson for the Salt Lake County GOP.
“I have been involved in issues here in Salt Lake County for many years,” he said, adding that his campaign and goals for Congress are to focus on policy regardless of party affiliation.
When asked where he stood on the Republican spectrum, Robinson said he’s never “identified with any of the subcultures within the Republican Party”. He believes his focus on issues like water conservation and housing can make up for the lack of name recognition compared to a candidate like McAdams.
“When it comes to these issues, what I have found in communications, with pushing policy, with reaching out to the grassroots and the voters, is your name recognition can elevate very, very quickly, as long as they are issues that really resonate with the voters,” he said.
Rather than collecting signatures for primary access, Robinson is relying on the GOP nominating convention to get his name on the ballot.
Meanwhile, Robinson is suing several GOP officials for defamation after he was accused of sexual harassment in 2020. Most of his claims have been dismissed and the case is still ongoing. Robinson said he denies all allegations and that he has remained transparent throughout the legal process
When asked if he feared having such a lawsuit hanging over his head would impact his chances, he said he believes in transparency in government and that it's the delegate’s “responsibility to vet these candidates.”
Lawsuits aside, at the end of the day, Robinson is still a Republican running in a district poised to favor a Democrat, and according to political scientist Leah Murray, he already faces an uphill battle.
Party nominating conventions are scheduled for April 25, the primary election is June 23 and Election Day is Nov. 3.
Read more from Utah News Dispatch: The ‘fascinating’ dynamics in play for Utah’s 2026 congressional primaries
Produced with assistance from the Public Media Journalists Association Editor Corps, funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a private corporation funded by the American people.
