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Utah’s dismal winter has already given way to early wildfire risks

A wildfire danger sign outside Zion National Park in southwest Utah, March 16, 2026.
David Condos
/
KUER
A wildfire danger sign outside Zion National Park in southwest Utah, March 16, 2026.

Utah’s wildfire season goes year-round these days.

There have been 84 fires statewide in the first three months of 2026. That’s around two dozen more than the same time last year, said Kelly Wickens, wildfire prevention and communication specialist with the Utah Division of Fire, Forestry and State Lands.

“We don't have a fire season anymore,” she said. “It seems like we're continuously fighting fire, even in those seasons we used to consider our off-seasons.”

Winter and early spring fires have happened before, she said, but the way this year’s fires are spreading is different from what Utah has seen in the past.

Blazes are consuming more acreage, she said, partially because it’s so early and vegetation is still brittle and dormant. Some measurements of the dryness of trees, grasses and other fire fuels indicate that Utah’s landscape is extraordinarily receptive to fire right now.

“We're setting records for this time of year,” Wickens said. “We're seeing values that we normally see in May or early June, which is kind of a warning signal.”

She expects fire conditions to cool down a bit in April as spring vegetation begins to green up. But the relief could be short-lived.

The latest seasonal outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center predicts above-average fire activity for parts of southern Utah starting in May. That includes St. George, Kanab, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument and areas surrounding Lake Powell.

The June outlook expects above-normal fire activity throughout southern Utah and much of central Utah as far north as Carbon County. By July, it covers nearly the entire state.

National Interagency Fire Center

That timeline would be a month to a month and a half earlier than normal, said Brad Washa, an assistant professor of wildland fire science at Utah State University.

“The idea that in July the entire state of Utah is identified as above-normal potential, that's something we'd see more into August.”

The July prediction is also notable, he said, because of the elevated risk in mountain forests, rather than grasslands and sagebrush.

“It's those mid to higher elevations where the concern is,” Washa said. “That largely goes back to what's happening with our snowpack. I mean, this winter has been truly an anomaly.”

He usually hesitates to predict what a fire season may hold because several factors, such as future heat and storm activity, can swing it one way or another. But the signs point toward alarming conditions this year.

In the past few months, Utah has seen its warmest winter on record, a historically low snowpack and an unprecedented March heat wave.

In a normal year, snow may blanket the state’s mountains into May or June, preventing downed timber and vegetation on the forest floor from becoming potential fire fuel. Now, they’re uncovered months early and are drying out.

“That means that we can be looking at potentially a longer fire season,” Washa said. “And when we do get fires on those fuels, they are going to be drier, so those fires could be of greater severity.”

It could be a sign of things to come as global climate change — driven by fossil fuel emissions — shifts Utah’s weather toward a warmer future with more extreme events.

A study from other Utah State University researchers suggests that an increase in hot days by 2050 will also escalate the frequency of fires in Utah and the acres burned. The report says high-elevation forests statewide could see a 60% increase in area burned by mid-century. Lower-elevation shrublands could see an increase of up to 130%.

Now is the time for Utahns to prepare if they haven’t already, Washa said, and there are proactive things people can do to protect their homes from fire. That includes cleaning up dead branches around the yard, removing low-hanging limbs from conifer trees and moving firewood piles at least 5 feet away from homes.

Another tip is to make sure any vents on your home are covered with a screen that will deflect burning embers, Wickens said. Embers traveling between homes were one of the primary contributors to the spread of the major urban fires in California in 2025.

It would be even better, of course, if fires didn’t start in the first place. A vast majority of Utah’s fires so far this year have been sparked by human activity. Wickens said the state will continue to educate the public about how to prevent fires when they’re driving, recreating or otherwise enjoying the outdoors.

David Condos is KUER’s southern Utah reporter based in St. George.
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